Thursday Katrina vanden Heuvel of The Nation and Nikolas Gvodsev of The National Interest chaperoned a first date among Progressives and Realists to consider the question “Beyond Neo-Cons and Neo-Libs: Can Realism Bridge Left and Right?” While the evening ended without a kiss, both agreed to see each other again.
Panelists included Kai Bird of The Nation, Dmitri Simes, President of The Nixon Center and Publisher of The National Interest, Sherle R. Schwenninger of the New America Foundation and Dov Zakheim formerly from OSD and now at Booz Allen Hamilton. Anatol Lieven of New America Foundation was the eloquent moderator.
All involved are united in their rejection of the Administration, Neocon and Neoliberal abstract concepts of American foreign policy based on a Will to Power. Yet profound differences beyond that critique remain. Imagine the Parisian emigre community after 1917 with S.R.s and Whites commingling and united in their disdain for the Bolsheviks. Now imagine that vibe transplanted to the antiseptic environs of an American think tank. You get the picture.
Initial statements by the panelists veered into restatements of hoary shibboleths. The Nixon Center's Robert Ellsworth helpfully urged all involved to get over their self mythos and grudges over policies dating back to Marines going ashore at Danang. We agree with Ellsworth that the crisis posed by Neocon/Neoliberalism remains grave even beyond the Bush twilight years. Ellsworth correctly reminded all in the room that we share a commitment to the Enlightenment.
The First Date's Rocky Start
Having said that, the basis for agreement remains truncated. Both Bird and Zakheim questioned whether there was much common ground. And for good cause.
Bird's unabashed Progressive view of the world, advances a romantic notion of Rooseveltian American foreign policy: seen through the filter of anti-imperialism, international law and norms, regional power architectures, etc. As advanced today at least, Bird's vision omits Roosveltian macht politik actions such as oil embargo against Japan or the undoubtably impeachable secret collaboration with the British before December 1941. It went so far that American pilots secrely based in England flying Catalinas located and helped sink battleship Bismark with the Royal Navy, etc. Bird correctly noted that NSC-68 and Paul Nitze transformed Kennan's original limited notion of containment of denying the Soviets specific cockpits of economic and cultural resources into a global architecture. But after the failure of the Brussels Treaty which gave rise to NATO, the earlier Berlin airlift and Korea, his blame of NSC-68 for subsequent American policies is too monocausal.
Zakheim refreshingly offered views beyond what one might expect by his tenure at OSD and relationships with Neocons. He rejected universal messianic abstractions and supports a two state solution in the Levant. Yet Zakheim's intellectual vocabulary is premised on Power, its unapologetic uses, deployments, limits and benefits. His commitment to applying Power with granular understanding of tactical social, historical and cultural nuances is at odds with Progressive embrace on univeralisms and support for multi-lateral institution building.
As we knew from before, Simes offered a precise formulation of Realism predicated on an understanding of a ranking of U.S. strategic priorities. See our earlier “Incoherent Hegemon” (one of our favorite graphics) and the synchronicity of views should be apparent.
We also agree with Simes that Progressives and Realists should focus on finding areas of agreement and work together in those specific directions. Both sides should agree to disagree on broader issues — whether it be tax cuts/social redistribution, etc. Here Simes echoed The Wiseman Elder Statesman Ellsworth's invaluable suggestion that Lieven, Gvodsev and vanden Hueval create workings groups to drill down on these specific practical issues.
The gulf between the parties remains significant. Covert action (to the extent it is even feasible in an Internet Age) is one example — Allende remains a sore point for Progressives. Nixon and Kissinger were ably defended by Simes and Zakheim. And on Iraq, Realists urge that the U.S. make a distinction between terrible choices and utterly catastrophic ones. A terrible choice is a costly withdrawal drawn out over stages of time, bringing in regional players including Syria, Jordan and Iran in the hopes of some stability. A catastrophic choice in that view is precipitous withdrawal or Turkish intervention over an independent Kurdistan and inevitable wider regional war. Progressives mostly want a prompt withdrawal. Complicating analysis is that U.S. and U.K. presence is iteself a catalyst for social disintegration.
Where to begin work? The area of overlapping interests beyond stopping Neocons and Neoliberals is fairly confined as one might expect from such divergent epistemologies. But it does exist. See Diagram 1 below.
What Would A Second Date Look Like Among Progressives And Realists?
Progressive and Realist Venn convergence is limited to those areas where application of Power and institutions can support normative activities. Examples would include the environment, limited humanitarian interventions such as Dharfur, and possibly national economic/industrial issues contraposed to Friedman-esque globalization banalities. Yet perhaps that is enough to start constructive dialogue and work.
We agree again with Ellsworth that should Democrats take one or both houses of Congress the intellectual climate and policy environment will transform rapidly. There will be an initial void as politics seeks a new equilibrium. We hope that Lieven, vanden Hueval and Gvodsev can mobilize the good willl, interest and shared alarm over the Neocon/Neoliberal agenda to seize that opportunity.
Some of these historical disputes will likely be made to seem smaller in perspective if events unfold as expected or more in the next few years.
It's too much to expect people to change their minds on things like the Hiss case for the Nation crowd or the case against Allende for the Nixon crowd. But younger partisans for either side are far more pragmatic ans open to looking at things anew because they are not a party to the old feuds - just the current ones. Also, if Woodward is right - Kissinger is now objectively , as the ideologues say, a Bushian - not a Kissingerian. Also - supporters for past action against Alllende now may adjust a bit to take into account the continuing developments in the Pinochet investigations, which is sheding much dark light.
Saturday 14 October 14:41
Comment wrote:
Turkey long ago passed legislation affirming their army's right to intevene in N. Iraq if they suspect any attempt to become independent. Not many people were listening - but they let everyone know shortly after their parliament rejected allowing US passage for invasion. Recall those heady days - when Mr. Democracy- Wolfowitz told the Turkish Generals how disappointed he was with the parliament.
Saturday 14 October 14:50
Comment wrote:
“Imagine the Parisian emigre community after 1917 with S.R.s and Whites commingling and united in their disdain for the Bolsheviks. Now imagine that vibe transplanted to the antiseptic environs of an American think tank”
That's a pretty humorous way to put it, but you are correct - it paints a picture. Meant to say above that the progressives are realists are understandably wed to their histories . If had been a truth and reconciliation meeting, the progressives might have allowed the realist cons some points for being correct about a many of those celebrated cold war cases and issues. Then the realists could reply by admitting that some of those double standards for dictatorships were pretty big double standards for some harsh dictators.
But that's just not realistic - people rarely see things anew after a lifetime of serious thinking. But as events unfold - younger realists and younger progressives may have an easier time of getting together because they don't have all those heavy memories of days past.
In a similar way, the complicated events of the last 6 or so years will serve to split the conservative factions - in interesting ways. It's a toss up as to who will win down the road.
Saturday 14 October 19:45
Comment wrote:
Was Ellsworth being Nixonian by pre-empting everyone with a call to move away from past battles?
It would be interesting to know how Nixon himself would interpret Bush and todays events. A case could be made that Nixon was actually closer to Clinton in actual , as oppose to image, foreign policy - than to Bush.
Though Nixon would probably operate on at least three tracks - public defense of Dubya, public respect for neocon/neolib ideals, and semi-private disdain for all the above.
Above - meant to say progressives and realists are wed to their respective histories - please excuse the typo.
A the above meeting could make for a good skit.
Saturday 14 October 20:00
Comment wrote:
Here's a fundamental misunderstanding that divides the two:
“ His [Zakheim] commitment to applying Power with granular understanding of tactical social, historical and cultural nuances is at odds with Progressive embrace on univeralisms and support for multi-lateral institution building.”
Isn't this, in the world of real life politics, a false choice. False choice sounds like a political cliche - but it seems to be a simple fact that our judicuous use of multi-lateral institutions and respect for international principles is also a way to be powerful - Since most of the world is poor and cruel, setting one's nation apart from traditional power politics from time to time can be a way to create power. Also universalism are not limited to progressives, but extand to all top tier (US News Ranking?) religions. So it's smart politics too.
Power is about winning - uniting friends and dividing enemies. The means are derivative of the principle. Mr Zakheim is probably every wiss , but maybe he should re-think that. The US accumulated power very rapidly without making power the organizing principle.
Saturday 14 October 20:19
Comment wrote:
“Roosveltian macht politik ... undoubtably impeachable secret collaboration with the British before December 1941”
Are you refering to Stephensen and Donaldsoe? This is something we'd like to read up on. It's one of those area of history when conspriracy theory dovtails and latched on to real events. Was their a cabal operating out of Rockefeller Center - acting in an illegal way to manuever the American people into war in a non above board way, while the powers that be abbetted or looked the other way?
Plus ca change, as Kerry might say.
Saturday 14 October 20:39
Comment wrote:
Here's a historical irony. A remnant meme from past secret collaboration with Churchill may have lived on - only to end up doing meme-battle with the modern Churchillian pro war ideologues. Consider Plame's 'employer.' - Brewster Jennings. This company was presumably s named after Mr. B. Brewster Jennings, who had been president of the real oil company Socony Vacuum and had been very close with British and Saudi oil concernes - before and after the war.
So it was interesing to see this small free info entry in the 1939 WPA guide to NYC : “Esso and Socony-Vacuum Travel Information Services, RCA building, Rockefeller Center.”
Now this commenter has seen enough spy movies to know this is what a good cover business sound like- Up in Rockefeller Center back in the hey day of a man called Intrepid - Further - NOte Esso. As you have noted, Hitchens has made a case against Kissinger. A part of Hitchens brief against Dr. K concernes a Nixon alleged link to Esso-related money - and how he connects that money o secret impeachable collaboration bet the Greek junta and Nixon-Kissinger.
So now you have Plame inherit the spirit of the old intriguers - and that that old meme spirit , inherired from past Brit collaboration, now runs head on against the new intriguers.
Saturday 14 October 21:21
Comment wrote:
Calling todays ideologues Churchillian is a bit generous - to say the least. Churchill was sui generis and led this incredible life and was a brave soldier and a brilliant writer - That's beside the point as to whether or not adhere to the most admiring school of bio, regarding him.
Just meant to mean Churchillian in the modern watered downs sense - ie how you describe youself and your magazine pov. Just self image - today's Churchillian would probably not be bother with the Boer war - though he would support it . Postmodern Churchillian maybe.
Saturday 14 October 21:29
Comment wrote:
“I told [B. Brewster] Jennings I was deeply concerned about the future supply of oil for this country, not merely for the possible use in war but for the needs of peace. I expressed it as my opinion that unless we had access to Middle Easr oil, American motorcar would have to design a four-cylinder motorcar sometime within the next five years.”
6 Jan 1948, Breakast with Mr. Jennings
The Forrestal Diaries
-----
So you can see read ultra realist (possible to the point of madness) James Forrestal pushing a petro-base approach to the Middle East to Jennings of Sacony-Vacuum.
You can easily imagine how Hitch would gladly let Plame inherit this meme so he could box her into carrying the ill wind of oil imperialism as opposed to his and his comrades idealism. Indeed, Gore might get a kick out of that 4 cylinder line - but it's both too late and too early for a Gore-Hitch pact on anything Middle Eastern
Saturday 14 October 21:50
Comment wrote:
Above quote should have said American motorcar companies - Sadly, we live in a time of error. Later in that Diary, Forrestal doubles the time needed for 4 cylinder car conversion window to “within ten years” - if we did get access to Mid East oil - Also, he concurs with Robert McConnell on not reviving the Ruhr coal economy in postwar Germany.
Here, you could argue this did quite a bit to lower pollution in Germany's post war boom - even though they were not Greens (note to Katrina) and was done primaily for reasons of efficiency and recognition of a policy choice to facilitate the post war oil economy - so as to prepare for war and keep the economy humming. A realist approach realizes a progressive end?
Saturday 14 October 23:42
Comment wrote:
Like we said, we live in a time of error - the 4 cylinder cars would have been necessary if we did not get the Mid East oil.
Imagine if that happened - Then the entire car culture of the 50s would have been different.
It's hard to say what would have happened - maybe UK and France would have moved more aggressively . Maybe we would have been more involved w S. America, as Marshall indicated possibilities to Forrestal.
Saturday 14 October 23:52
Armchair wrote:
Is that woman dancing in front of Nixon and Kissnger from AEI?
Here, you could argue this did quite a bit to lower pollution in Germany's post war boom - even though they were not Greens (note to Katrina) and was done primaily for reasons of efficiency and recognition of a policy choice to facilitate the post war oil economy - so as to prepare for war and keep the economy humming. A realist approach realizes a progressive end?
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