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Learning From Israel, Afghanistan and Iraq?
That gerund is optimistic, naturally. If, perchance, you are a long time reader, you know our cant on the fractured, micro-channelled and above all, incoherent nature of the contemporary American mind. This diagnosis applies most accurately (and ironically) to the most regimented and hierarchical of our institutions, such as the DoD/industrial duality.
William Lind offers us still more incisive analysis on the fundamental failure of the American military to meet our current needs. Lind, correctly in our view, notes the excellent Israeli Winograd Commission's review of why Israel lost in Lebanon in 2006 applies (unsurprisingly) to the U.S. as well. The Commission excoriates the Israeli's fixation on technology as an end unto itself, while failing to understand that warfare has changed to what Lind et al. coined as “4th Generation”. Both the U.S. and Israel remain addicted to a flawed view that warfare remains putting fire on targets, hence the continued fixation on “precision fire”.
Lind quotes the Commission's pithy insight:
[The-IDF Chief of the General Staff] Halutz encouraged the civilian leaders to believe that Israel could launch a precision air and artillery offensive without getting dragged into a broad ground offensive. ... the failure of Halutz and the General Staff to appraise the enemy's abilities: correctly at the outbreak of the war stemmed not from incorrect intelligence or analysis, but from a willed denial of the limitations of the IDF's precision weapons.
So do we see OSD's dreams also buried in the sands of Anbar.
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As we noted recently, OSD and the military deliberately hide the true cost of “Operation Excellent Adventure” by obscure the staggering Force Replenishment bill for hardware destroyed or worn out through accelerated lifecyle useage. CNN ran a surprisingly good piece this weekend on this topic. The military take enormous efforts to hide destroyed and damaged Bradleys, Humvees, even M1s, helicopters, etc.
Replenishment is a separate cost item from next generation procurement price tags (based on stunningly expensive, over designed platforms designed to deliver precision fires). The Navy wants new carriers, a new destroyer and the troubled littoral combat ship. The Air Force is smart enough to make sure that the F-22s are prominently displayed in the pop culture imagination such as Transformers movies, etc. And the Army has the Future Combat System, and so on. Something has to give.
-------------
We raise all this because the issue is about to leave ethereal academic discussion and plummet into the Tweetysphere (tm). Naturally, the fact that the U.S. will lose a war because the military itself no longer understands warfare will be obscured and ignored. Lind's initial arguments about 4G warfare, the precision fire ethos, even Rummy's transformation all still remain specialized, arcane debates. How many angels (Powerpoint slides?) on the head of a APFSDS 120mm round?
The Tweetysphere (tm), however, can comprehend spending, budgets, pork and jobs. Very soon, the U.S. for the first time must confront external resource restraints — we can not afford Force Replenishment and procurement of the next generation at the same time. Boys with toys naturally want the new stuff, so the Air Force for example retired the F-117 Stealth platform to make way for the F-22. But what we have been calling the scissors crisis — two tend lines in diamentrically opposite directions — will not go away.
Tags:
RMA,
Winograd Commission,
Israeli,
4th Generation War,
precision fire,
procurement,
replenishment,
Iraq,
Neocons,
War
Posted in General Aktion
at 10:07 on Monday 09 July
by DrLeoStrauss
Comments
Why blame the military or, God forbid, George Bush for losing the war when you can just as easily pin blame on soul-patched liberal ectomorphs, hysterical feminists, and bearded academics?
Lind makes two big errors - First he implies Dam Halutz was a failure or he extrapolates that from the Winograd report. Failure? Ha - After last year's little war Dan Halutz went to graduate school at Harvard Business School.
Do you know how hard it is to get into HBS or any part of Harvard these days? Did Halutz have to take a Stanley Kaplan course to help with his GMATs?
Presumably no - Rather, Halutz was able to use his Lebanon War as his chief resume item -
It's unclear what kind of recommendations he got, but let's put it this way = No one sees Hassan Nasrallah walking thru Harvard Yard these days - despite his excellent SAT results, his AP scors, and his good show on the Calculus achievment test.
So Halutz got into Harvard and Nasrallah did not even make the waiting list - We venture a good guess that Dan Halutz's mom is pretty happy - even though some others are pissed
Also, Lind says “The defense industry fat cats must have read it [Winograd report] and wept.
We doubt that - we think they heard about it said, ”Winograd report? We don't need know stinking Winograd report - and for that mattter, we don't need no stinking badges either!"
Did Lind get into Haravard? Maybe he's jealous of Halutz's admission?
Danielle Pletka - the Secretary of State from AEI - appeared wowed by General Keane's moving performance today at AEI - Like she was gonna throw him a biscuit.
Couldn't we just spend just *half* a gajillion dollars on the toys, and then build up an elite fighting force, starting with good pay and proper protective gear?
“Vapid carping” was how Fred Kagan described the Iraq debate today at AEI in his snotty meaningless presentation. “Vapid Carping!” Tony Snow would call that chutzpha.
Dems should propose massive increases in the life insurance settlement for military deaths - Though it has been raised, it is still lower than it should be. This will have the added benefit of making cost projections for future wars more expensive - Not that it will dissuade the war types.
It's really amazing to listen to and watch Fred Kagan - He speaks with arrogant fluidity and confidence about things he knows nothing about. He's really good at it - He adopts this attitude that suggests he knows what he's talking about, that he is familiar with this insurgent leader in Anbar or that militia leader in Ramadi. Yet - he is totally winging it. He doesn't speak Arabic and he has no military experience - Moreover - he has never spent any meaningful time in the region. Nevertheless, we admire his abilitty as a b***s*** artist. It's amazing he still gets away with it -
I'll have to try and watch that...I wonder if I can get it online thru C-Span. But having this guy design a major military campaign is right up there with putting Bremer in charge of the CPA. Geeze.
Bremer was a colossas compared to Kagan - since he actually went to (if you count the Green Zone) the country he was trying to rule.
It should be online soon:
http://www.c-span.org
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