Jabotinsky’s heirs down through Irgun, the bombing of the King David Hotel, Likud and the temporary false front of Kadima and its aftermath have the Boy King’s measure. Bibi, among this motley assortment, is not even the most extreme. So why should any of them think there’s a price to pay? After embarrassing Obama’s two-state initiative recenty? BP, Beijing, a child-man TV anchor Bret Baier and even souvenir stands in D.C. treat him as a Ken doll.
People like Stephen Walt et al. can fulminate. Fruitlessly. We’re sympathetic – Walt in particular braved crazed calumny. But he claims to be a realist. So he and so-called ‘realists’ need to face facts. The U.S. is helpless. For four reasons. First is Obama. ‘Nuff said.
Second, Israel never has given a hoot about international opinion- from 1947 to today. Who cares if the UN votes on this incident without an American veto. A ‘signal’ you say? Ha. What changes on the ground? That’s what Israelis of all political hues know matters. Remember. These people are debating and fighting internally protracted war over the status of individual buildings, streets, hills, gullies and settlements. A vote in fading New York? Please. Sans real and direct consequences, Israel’s policy of Palestinian apartheid will continue. The Palestinians will live wretched lives like General Government untermenschen and die needlessly. Rightists elements in Bibi’s government in particular believe it’s the racially correct outcome. And they’re not alone.
Israelis should believe this relief ship massacre will just blow over. Again. Why not? Same drill. Tactical crisis management and wait for an ADD world’s attention to flit on. Who recalls innocent Lebanese dead from 2006? Or the last Gaza brutality? But everyone knows the iPad is out. What about that tweet Carla Bruni wants to tour with Madonna?
‘Who remembers the Armenians?’ one corporal asked. Perhaps our friend Comment is correct. He suggests the relief boat tragedy end game is farce. An impotent Congress will sputter and then expend itself on something extraneous. Like finally declaring ‘something bad happened to the Armenians’. In 2010, almost a century later.
Cynical? 98% of Americans don’t know who, where or what Armenians are. Except they might know Kim Kardashian. Ergo Armenians must be OK. Could the Turkish lobby withstand the need to do something? Imagine a 100 years from now, the Amer-Can-Mexicana Parliament finally erects an Omniverse digital koan to the remaining Palestinians’ rights. Perhaps a future Palestinian-American virtual celebutante with a cortex-shunt reality hologram show could help pave the way as well.
In the meantime, third, the Israeli lock on American domestic politics remains. Not as strong, but enough to daunt the Ken Doll. Democrats are beholden. Christian Conservatives in 2010 (in the country and on the Hill) know Israel’s history and geography better than their own cities and states. True, some want a strong Israel to usher in the Third Temple, slaughter of unconverted Israelites and the End Times. Lobbying is about immediate practicalities. Weakened AIPAC happily will work with what it has. No sign any of this will change in 2010 or 2012.
Finally, American society is now generally militarized. Glorification of Israeli kinetic violence and Will to use Force is widespread. Separate from religious or ethnic rationales above. A Neocon success. Helps that it’s ‘dirty’ dark people dying (Palestinians, Arabs, Turks, Persians – all the same – and if they are Caucasians in the cross fire? Probably UN One Worlder types anyway). We’ve not seen a recent fielded poll. We’re willing to bet though simplistic American societal consciousness perceives an errant but loyal pit bull doing our dirty work for us. Against dark people terrrrrrisssts. The Warlord’s years of false binary thinking don’t evaporate just because Obama utters ‘Let me be clear’ 7 times a speech. Especially when the Ken Doll talks about, well, endless war himself.
The question we ponder? What will trigger potential for conflagration first: looming American strategic defeat and withdrawal from the Greater Middle East, or more of the same Israeli unjustified brutality. We suspect the former. Israeli crimes are largely local for all their tragic, horrific costs. American coming strategic defeat will unlock multiple avenues to attack on The Realm from all sides, the Persians being only the most obvious. All bets come off then. Absent real change we can believe in here at home, that tail will wag the weak, broke and probably crippled American dog.
That Israel is acting against its own interests, against the interests of its own citizens, and against American interests? Meaningless. Who are we to condemn in one sense. The American people re-elected the Warlord after his regime for 4 years vandalized five decades of American international accomplishments. We’ll be more optimistic when the vastly over rated ‘ J Street’ and its ilk cease being cardboard cutouts and hand puppets used by normally intimidated, non-Judaic Americans to hide behind. When J Street and others become something real. No longer notional posturing at receptions and taking the fight to hobbled AIPAC, the Weekly Standard and the Religious Right with no holds barred in the political arena on the ground. And with money. In it to win it as they say. Not seeing it.
Then we’ll take note that finally: (a) America has a chance to *and will* act in its own national interest; and (b) Israel’s true friends can support sustainable indigenous Israeli policies for a safe, secure and prosperous Israel. Otherwise, sadly, the world moves along. There’s only more crimes to see. Move along.
Comment says
Colbert has a funny Japan-related skit tonight, Leo – Obama should focus on the Gulf, not the impossible situation w/Bibi – There are so many things he should be doing politically and legislatively – he cannot stop the spill – no one can, but he can shape the debate.
Comment says
Tweety does not believe one whit what he said tonight about the aid ship – He is being willfully ignorant – He’s bargaining again — he thinks he has too to maintain his rank.
Comment says
This is a big problem for us – same as the oil spill (which will last a year). If Israel harms the Irish ship it will be a big problem and we suspect they will let the Irish ship go in – even though it has the name Rachel Corrie – named after the gal the WSJ often mocks for dying at the hands of bulldozer.
We doubt the Turkish escort will happen – just too dangerous for all parties.
inquire says
>What will trigger potential for conflagration first
To me, it seems the most probable trigger is going to be whether there is a Turkish naval escort for the next flotilla.
This most recent convoy was the 9th Gaza civil resupply mission, the third that was blocked, and the first to suffer casualties. Despite there being more high profile people on previous outings, this one was the largest, and the only one to really gain the world’s attention.
*When* there is another flotilla, *if* it is escorted by the Turkish Navy, then there will be war (or at least acts of war).
This, of course, is highly complex given that both are US clients, and is further complicated by Turkey’s NATO membership. If the IDF attack a Turkish naval vessel, that will be an Article 5 situation, which would cause monumental diplomatic (and military) problems. Could we see an Israel/Turkey air-naval war over the Mediterranean? Would ballistic missiles be required? Would Lebanon and Syria throw-in with Turkey?
This seems to be the most vexing near-term regional issue with the greatest long-term global consequences.
Dr Leo Strauss says
@ Inquire, perhaps the 1974 Cyprus situation presented more potential for disaster to U.S. interests given the two NATO allies involved – Turkey and Greece. This 2010 massacre is, for all the emotion, an incident about as you note, a series of blockage-running humanitarian ships — albeit with general political support in Turkey. U.S. influence with Turkey is relatively low given noises in Congress about Armenia and manifest by Turkey’s recent undermining of U.S. foreign policy re Iran avec Brazil. The Turks refused American requests to re-direct the ship after all. But one doubts Turkey will elect to play chicken with a military escort given tensions, lack of any viable war termination strategy and relative military capabilities. Add economic and military relationships and this particular Israeli government. Should the Turks choose poorly it happens there are numerous players beside Ken Doll who can play broker to de-escalate.
Perhaps Brazil can return and play Teddy Roosevelt.
Comment says
Reading Goldberg over at Atlantic – we doubt many of the conversations he records took place — They sound canned and he sounds fake-critical. He has to be one of the most insincere writers around – Those false linkage bet Iraq-Qaeda columns he wrote for Cheney’s use were pretty nasty affairs. It must be stressful putting on his act. Endless bsing – for years. That “bananas” quote he supposedly got from an IDF Gen. – is most likely fake.
Comment says
Oh – that’s the Clemmons link again – whatever, the VF is somewhere on VF website
Comment says
Yeah – we thought Steve C. seemed to painting a picture. It did not seem right and we know you know Japan, so we dropped it off.
Just clicked on a VF article about that ridiculous Tweety icon Sally Quinn:
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2010/06/obama_takes_dow/
“After an astrologer told Sally that Quinn would benefit from yoga, she had lunch with New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd, who recommended her own teacher, Pary, whose students included David Gregory and Rahm Emanuel. Sally signed Quinn up for six sessions with her.”
This crowd – unreal.
Dr Leo Strauss says
We’re not strangers to Japan, Japanese politics, language and history and simply disagree with Steve’s premise. It’s utterly simplistic to assert that Obama had the power to determine Hatoyama’s political viability. The base issue is obviously critical but Hatoyama’s handling of it was more damaging than the outcome itself. Moreover, there are a multitude of unrelated internal party and domestic issues at play. Nor do we agree that Obama has seriously tried to isolate or otherwise act to seek ‘regime change’ or similar punishment in Israel. Nor could he even if he wanted.
Steve remains a master of clever meme marketing. That piece has appeared verbatim on a bunch of high traffic sites and we got it in an email, too, One could almost think one saw the same column posted tonight on a milk carton in Seven/ Eleven. Snarky perhaps, but beneath it a sincere compliment. Howard Fineman couldn’t swing that kind of play.
Dr Leo Strauss says
Mossad is worried about the Ken Doll, too, from the other side.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3897456,00.html
Comment says
re: Japan
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2010/06/obama_takes_dow/
Comment says
The big news of this is how the split btw Turkey and Israel will widen. This will affect so much. The Palinvolk is celebrating the action – but there is a limit to this alliance.