Khaddafi And The American Dream Of Relevance

So he’s finally gone. We understand the Libyan joy. The American Twitterati and cable news pushing gruesome photos and the like? Not so much.

At 9:00 AM this morning ‘experts’ on cable already proclaimed today’s events proof of the ‘Libyan Model’ for handling other regional struggles, whether Yemen or Uganda. American airpower and C4ISR [if necessary insert NATO as delivery platform cut out] with a few special forces on the ground (SAS, French, DO/JSOC, etc.) would allow local peoples to *look like* they toppled their regime. They get the credit, dictator X is gone, and as Joe Scarborough said, “the people cheer America and wave American flags. That’s the important part.”

Khaddafi Killed, NATO, Airstrikes, Libyan Civil War, The Libyan Model

American fixation applying yesterday’s events to tomorrow is — as you know – a long standing, proud tradition. One could be part of a family called ‘Stop the Spirit of Zossen’ and even, you know, spend years talking about it together. Today, just to pick a pundit at random, Robin Wright intoned (without irony) how the above Libyan Model might be applied in the future. Remember in Spring and Summer of 2002 those who wanted to apply “the Afghanistan Model” to drain the swamp and impose regime change? Almost the exact same words: American airpower (JDAM and Daisy Cutters new to the pop lexicon), special forces and indigenous troops would avoid another Vietnam. All the rage, in Time magazine, etc. And that was when the Council on Foreign Relations, the New York Times and a congressional hearing actually meant something.

Obama’s bizarre assertiveness re bombing Libya and its quixotic aftermath will set precedent with more unforeseen consequences than the “Libyan Model”. One wonders if the UN next time, particularly Russia and China, will accept so-called humanitarian authorizations. Reading official press and government comments from Moscow and Beijing, we doubt it. Americans celebrating the moment gloss over Libyan circumstances which proved uniquely conducive to NATO’s actually rather ineffective intervention. Domestic tribal interactions, proximity to Egypt and Tunisia and most importantly Western history on the ground, both long ago all and recent all helped a stand-off engagement.

The Libyan Model will gain bureaucratic traction in Washington as DoD and the defense socio-economic class are finally realizing that the salad days are gone for real. The Air Force and Navy are expected to emerge *relatively* better off than the Army. In part because the land wars naturally are winding down and the other services wisely sell their kinetic fire on target capabilities. In part because notions like the Libyan Model intoxicate with whispers of continued U.S. geopolitical global relevance and power projection on the cheap.

To believe in the Libyan Model is to embrace continued American self-image as imperial arbiter, or if not arbiter, not insolvent former hegemon. And that America will need an imperial punditocracy, pamphleteers, grants, cable appearances and so on. That Americans will eschew learning dirty details of languages, history, etc. – no reason to expect embracing area studies now. Someone will Tweet all the details necessary anyway.

The Brits maintained the facade of empire on the cheap for a while. So it’s not like this is anything unprecedented. Still, because Libya’s outcome today rests on so many sui generis factors, American reliance on the Libyan Model may prove short lived. Even the model peddlers back off when given hard choices such as Syria.

All of which is a diversion from the realities of real power and genuine power projection. And preparing for that clash with what we have today and can expect to deploy tomorrow even with the wisest of foreign policy judgment.

Comments

  1. Dr Leo Strauss says

    Timely reminder that drones will be deployed against us soon. After all, an Aussie anti-whaling non-profit has deployed its own drone to shadow Japanese whaling ships.

    http://armedforcesjournal.com/2011/12/8513180

    Still sifting through the Boy King’s ‘strategy’ to see if anything has changed since we shared our appraisal.

  2. DrLeoStrauss says

    @Comment
    The Lizard King in his prime would definitely know how to work with OWS to create performance art. Agree it would be fascinating to see.

  3. DrLeoStrauss says

    JPBarlow, wow brings back memories of 1993/1994 when he was declaring the world of cyberspace immune to and beyond the laws of mere terrestrial governments. Long story about a manifesto involving him, Esther Dyson and a bunch of us/friends.

    We were deeply involved in spectrum reform issues back then, and property rights were the cutting edge notion (going back to a Stanford LRev article, the hilarious Tom Hazlett) to pry spectrum from the vice-like grip of NTIA bureaucratese. Property rights became ‘weaponized’ through auctions in which he also participated – from the first through the later notorious C-Block for PCS – or what we call today handsets and smart phone spectrum.

    JPBarlow excels at articulating the romantic still, apparently. The notions are not inherently either or, as the FCC as long provided unlicensed, unregulated spectrum. Property rights were vital an freeing up the spectrum locked away. Moreover, the CAPEX to build out a 4G network and maintain it won’t come from dyed t-shirts and balloons filled with nitrous.

    Still, new circumstances demand new flexibilities — or new balances. A think tank with which in another guise we had some . . .familiarity . . . hosted a recent spectrum reform symposia. We were tempted to go and wave hello to old friends. Will keep an eye out for another.

  4. Comment says

    So typical of media liberal to fall for GOP pushback on Bork – 1 time when Dems showed spine and did what they believed. The 1 time.

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