We doubt much will happen re Iran despite the frantic meme soup mania. An enrichment weapons grade nuclear facility does turn heads. Perhaps the Russians were duped – we are not prepared to take Obama staffers’ ‘expert’ body language at face value. But then Dear Reader, you need to recall how the Soviets/Russians compartmentalize. Consider SALT. As masters of maskirovka, arms control violations themselves, the civilian Russian negotiators depended on the Americans to tell them what the their own military was doing and building. Not so bad today, we would raise an eyebrow if the ‘Russian’s per se (Putin) were surprised. The KGB and now SVR operate in Iran with far greater sophistication than Americans and they know it’s the bazaar culture. Hard to feel sorry for them. Somewhere we suspect there is a poor apparatchik with some overhead in his hands in panic he didn’t pass it up.
Bibi’s stock goes up. We still thought his UN schtick holding up marked up text at the podium to prove the Iranians (gasp) don’t like Israel looked like a petulant parent at a PTA meeting insisting his home schooling was as good as liberal fascist Obama educators.
The Chinese we expect to soft shoe more but tack with the general direction. The winds of history are in their favor. They know Americans are geopolitically (financially, socially and increasingly technically) incompetent. No reason for them to do more than the very minimum. Why rock the boat at this time?
Iran if it is smart it will slow roll the second facility as a back up for the already existing infrastructure. It will meet the October 1st deadline put before it with well, ‘bazaaar’ culture diplomacy. The Iranians know NATO is falling apart in Afghanistan, Tehran is winning in Iraq and Obama’s ‘military option consists of a Clintion-esque ‘ Desert Fox’ fireworks display. In the meantime, the extremists in Iran if wise will fudge the domestic audience to maintain the peaceful program facade and keep national unity. This play will place everything back essentially to where it was on 24 September, 2009. A wild card could be if any election malcontents could raise the weapons programs internally.
All in all the Administration played a diplomatic hand well. How refreshing.