The Obama Administration’s apparent agreement to shield current DoD bloat at essentially a 1% annual level while proclaiming dramatic cuts is chutzpah even for them. Given our general fiscal collapse, Obama’s proposed budget is actually just a pre-emptive token for political optics. This budget preserves intact the perpetual militarization launched by Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld. Obama ironically really *is* Sovietizing America in this regard.
It’s a proposal. So we shouldn’t get too worked up just yet. Why? Whenever anyone talks about ‘out year savings’ or ‘projected fiscal year savings’ they’re babbling for political cover. DoD budgets are approved annually, as you know. Authorizers and appropriators alike always have rejected budget reform proposals like two-year budgets to improve management and savings. This Tea Party crowd reading Gilberts ConLaw to each other won’t cede any of that annual power to the illegitimate Obama. Plus, neither party got worked up over running two wars off the books. Out year projections like statistics are often fibs.
Second, a rational government would link DoD budgets to U.S foreign policy and security goals. Obama’s vaunted new look foreign policy? Offers tone and tenor differences from Bush. Welcome. What’s jarring — but predictable — about this Administration DoD proposed budget? It enshrines the essential irrational global militarization of 2001-2008. Obama also doesn’t threaten any major rice bowls. Existing political-economic constituencies may complain but they escape largely unscathed. Bush Lite. It’s classic Obama Goldilocks Syndrome — go for lukewarm pudding. Adams in the NYT may say ‘I think the floor under defense spending has now gone soft’. If he means unchecked irrational growth is over, he might have a point. Nonetheless, when we cut through all the smoke and mirrors, Obama proposes an aggregate overall package concealing about 1% actual real growth or at worse a steady state. Some floor.
How ‘Republicans’ and the Movement factions reconcile their fiscal and security memes among themselves remains unknown. 2008-2010 tells us that Obama and Democrats are incapable of bold conceptual initiatives. The worst outcome for America and the world? To fudge the hard questions and ‘muddle through’ on tactical politics of the moment. The Tweetyverse applauds Obama for saying tax reform will regain his mojo. That’s our point. The responsible play for America and history (what Obama claims to value) is to do the hard work and re-evaluate American strategic interests first in our new incarnation. Then reconfigure the purpose of American power and its budget accordingly.
Consider the British experience post-1918. Seemingly a victor of the Great War, Great Britain was already no longer ‘great’ even by 1920. Nonetheless, successive governments left unchanged her Imperial commitments. Meanwhile, her actual outlays fluctuated according to disassociated tactical domestic and internal political-economic logic. Her ‘ends means gap’ between her global commitments and what she was able to do? A significant contributor to 50 million people dying 1939-45.
We offer that not as direct analogy but as a caution. America 2001-2010 can safely be diagnosed as an irrational great power in many ways — viewed by world historical prism. The Obama proposed DoD budget does nothing to change that institutionally. A more rational power (recognizing that policy is ultimately by and for people, thus inherently irrational on one level) would audit the existing American global footprint and re-align core interests, distinguish secondary interests from preferred but not central environments, etc. And then come up with a number. It’s the only way to avoid a potentialy strategically calamitous chronic ends means gap. Or warping further the American domestic fabric to sustain the misaligned commitments and resources.
True, Gordon Adams from the Obama transition team says the White House wanted to scale back out year fantasy spending by $150 billion over the next 5 years. But the White House
caved settled for $78 billion notionally. Nowhere has the Administration demonstrated a strategic re-think of American power and purpose commensurate with an alleged $150 billion target. Did you see that? Where did $150 billion come from? What rationale proposed a different American geo-strategic footprint? Where were the roll backs? Precisely. The dog that didn’t bark.
The ‘dramatic cuts’ charade is a load of eyewash. Institutional
hormonal fiscal aberration created over 2001-2008 remains. The Nomenklatura as a social class of privilege are undisturbed. A modest force size reduction is a natural event post Iraq. No give there. $4 billion on ‘cost savings’ by putting one F-35 variant on ‘hold’ for two years? First, it’s illusory. Unless the program is killed outright (like the F-22), stretching out program buys is a game that actually makes the per unit cost higher just for optics. Second, this small example also makes our point, supra: *alleged* (or even potential) $4 billion savings over an F-35 engine is essentially a meaningless act, politically logical only within the tactical political-economic frame of the program and specific moment.
We continue to allow both parties to duck hard questions and answers. We’ll all likely witness yet another Obama Goldilocks Syndrome of muddling through. Like he does with everything else, his Goldilocks Syndrome may ease momentary political discomfort. Obama accelerates our Sovietization by maintaining irrational resource allocations to maintain Bush’s Permanent National Security State intact. 1% or flat budgets in this non-inflationary period are a pass. This lock in of the Permanent National Security State only intensifies a contracting civil society facing catastrophic falls in living standards. Want to see a soft floor? There it is – our standard of living and social fabric, not the defense budget.
Ultimately, the Goldilocks Syndrome is a dead end. Maintaining a Permanent National Security State divorced from an audit of ends means is unsustainable. At best, we externally are left open to the vagaries of events and purposeful agendas of others. At worst, domestically we follow the Soviet model along its historical trajectory. One would think we’d learned that lesson by now.