And so it goes. Those addicted to the War on Neocons read signs and portents in the forced resignation of CENTCOM’s Admiral Fallon. We don’t think Iran has much to worry about yet. Admiral Fallon’s fall is simply another example of a non-political person speaking to a journalist with his or her own agenda. In this case, the agenda was to promote Fallon as the co-equal force bravely standing up to a lame duck president and an even lamer duck vice president. Unfortunately, in any organization, especially the military, contradicting the commander in chief while in uniform is a lethal career move. Oddly enough, the Weekly Standard gets it about 85% right.
Any reader who has sat for journalists or been quoted by them knows exactly how dicey the interview game can be. One never knows until it literally is in print or bits. As to whether Fallon’s interview was an intentional career suicide note only those in his confidence can say. We think this resignation at this time will have slim to none impact on the Administration’s over all rhetorical flourishes against Iran.
The White House is determined to maintain a war of words and posturing on Iran while it seeks to exfiltrate as many combat brigades as possible from Iraq this Spring or early Summer. Declaring victory all the way. They have to so. Or literally the Army will begin to break at the seams. The interesting question there is whether the insurgents were “smashed” by the surge or simply went to ground. Our bet today would be on the latter.
The Stiftung has spoken to a number of the most ardent anti-Iranian neocons and they have all told the Stiftung at various times their intense opposition to an airstrike on Iran for all the reasons readers here might think of: ineffective, only re-inforces nationalism — particularly among anti regime forces, and empowers hard liners. Moreover, air strikes on Iran would vastly complicate withdrawal from Iraq. Not quite the Chinese border in Korea, but complications nonetheless. Fallon may have resigned over policy differences, tenor and tone in regional policy. We doubt it was over an impending air strikes.